Markets & economy
As bottom-up stock pickers we are less concerned about the market and economy than factors that make individual shares attractive. However, we acknowledge that we need to bear in mind the context in which we must invest. Here we share our long-term views on the market and economy.
Articles in "Markets & economy"
Seeking a bridge for South Africa’s troubled waters
As South Africans breathe a sigh of relief that load shedding has tailed off, water risks have come to the fore. Multiple provinces are grappling with...
Rate-cutting cycle kicks off
During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...
After four years, South Africa gets repo rate relief
On 19 September, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut interest rates for the first time in four years – lowering the overnight rate of interest from 8.2...
How the great election year has shaped financial markets
Global elections have been a dominant force this year, with sentiment around polling and election results driving volatility in many markets.
Investment notes from the frontier
Investing in frontier markets is not for the faint-hearted. But for those brave enough to look beyond material risks, such as political instability, currency...
The trillion-dollar endgame
The US government has dug itself into a debt hole. With spending being its go-to solution for most problems, it is unclear how the situation will be resolved...
Frontier markets: Innovative industry leaders drive returns
There are many variables to consider when investing in frontier markets, and investors need to weigh up the risks very carefully as they pursue long-term...
What’s in store for interest rates in 2024?
Over the course of 2023, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) raised the overnight repo rate from 7.00% to a 14-year high of 8.25%.
Eskom: Are brighter days ahead?
What does 2024 have in store for loadshedding? Raine Adams investigates whether there is any light at the end of the dark tunnel.
Is South Africa winning the inflation battle?
Following the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) aggressive near-two-year interest rate hiking cycle, headline inflation in South Africa seems to be getting...
Currency dynamics and returns in emerging and frontier markets
Rami Hajjar considers currency dynamics in emerging and frontier markets, focusing on how currency impacts returns, and how we think about this factor when...
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth
South African companies are reallocating billions of rands towards the extraordinary costs associated with loadshedding. Government’s prospects for debt...
The new normal: What lies ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio manager Thalia Petousis and Sandy McGregor, the longest-serving member of the Allan Gray Investmen...
The 2023 Budget: A crisis of credibility in the outer years of the forecast
Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray, shares her views on the challenges of putting together a credible national budget
Massive market moves: How will they shape the years ahead?
In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, chief investment officer, Duncan Artus, joins Tamryn Lamb, head of Retail, to unpack why the year was a...
Are inflation-beating returns on the horizon for money market investors in 2023?
The 2022 calendar year was undeniably one of meaningful financial market upheaval, worsened by negative portfolio returns of a quantum that many investors ha...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate
During the past quarter inflation has remained elevated. In the US the latest print for August was 8.3%. In Europe it was 10.0% in September. Even though in...
The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation
Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...
Podcast: Can South African investors continue to count on commodities?
In this episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, portfolio managers Sean Munsie and Rory Kutisker-Jacobson and investment analyst Jithen Pillay discuss the cyclica...
Whither inflation?
In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.
On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)
Just as the economic destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic rose to crisis levels, strong commodity export prices swept in to alleviate South Africa’s fiscal...
Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?
In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Positioning our portfolios for an inflationary environment
With rising global inflation and the possibility of a recession on the cards, investors are tasked with protecting their capital and looking for opportunitie...
Food price inflation: Are we watching “That ‘70s Show”?
Unaffordable food and fuel prices are raising developed market consumer inflation to multi-decade highs, while the Federal Reserve recently announced a...
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation
With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...
Lebanon’s financial collapse
On 17 October 2019, angry demonstrators took to the streets of Lebanon to protest a US$6 per month WhatsApp communication tax. Little did they know that the...
Africa market bond exposure: Understanding the risks and opportunities
Is it worth taking on a bit more risk to achieve potential return? Londa Nxumalo explains the relationship between risk and return in the fixed income contex...
Inflation returns
Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...
Q&A with portfolio managers from Allan Gray and Orbis 2021
The global recovery is underway as markets rebound from their March 2020 lows, but the current pandemic is far from over, leaving many investors questioning...
Global recovery underway
The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...
The state of the economy
In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...
America as seen from afar
The United States is of critical importance to all investors regardless of where they are domiciled. It is the world’s largest economy, the powerhouse of...
African sovereign debt: Is a reality check looming?
Despite deteriorating economic fundamentals, Africa’s financial markets made a remarkable recovery in 2020. Mark Dunley-Owen discusses the price distortion i...
The impact of COVID-19's second wave
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...
COVID-19 and the Fourth Industrial Revolution
In the final instalment of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, our panellists discuss the impac...
African institutional investors
In the third of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, African institutional investors share their...
African sovereign and corporate listed bonds
In the second of a four-part webinar series, brought to you by the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Allan Gray, Celestin Rwabukumba, CEO of the Rwanda Sto...
The dangers of printing money
Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...
Searching for value amid Africa’s disappointing equity returns
International equity markets have recovered sharply from the March lows, however African markets made only a modest recovery. As the continent’s leaders face...
COVID-19 cracked the crystal ball
Investors and their advisers continue to grapple with the question of what life, and indeed the world economy, will look like in the next one to three years....
COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update
During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19
While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...
The world after the COVID-19 pandemic
We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...
COVID-19: Is there long-term value in frontier markets?
At the time of publication, roughly one-third of the world’s population is living under lockdown regulations as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In many...
COVID-19: Looking to history to understand potential outcomes
With much of the world in lockdown, one wonders whether it is appropriate to draw on past analogies in thinking about what lies ahead. However, every prior...
COVID-19: Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
With many countries in lockdown, uncertainty prevails. Against this backdrop, many clients are asking for our views on the economic impact, an update on our...
Impact of Moody's downgrade
As a consequence of the decision by Moody’s to lower South Africa’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, all three leading rating agencies now rate South African...
COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity
We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...
Coronavirus: Taking stock of the state of the markets
The world is changing extremely fast. The global business shutdown is unlike anything seen outside wartime. It is impossible to know the length or depth of t...
How could a ratings downgrade affect investors?
Inundated with reports of failing state-owned enterprises and spiralling government debt, investors are understandably concerned ahead of South Africa’s 2020...
Inflation
Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...
What lies ahead for Africa’s frontier markets?
At the core of our investment philosophy is a belief that markets are not always efficient or rational. We invest in businesses that we consider to be...
An age of anxiety
We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...
Broadened horizons, local learnings
Leonard Krüger and Nick Ndiritu look at how we have tailored our investment philosophy and process to invest in Frontier Africa markets. They discuss lessons...
South African investors need to fall out of love with equities
South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Guarded optimism on new Zimbabwe dollar
This past quarter, Zimbabwe reintroduced its national currency, reviving bitter memories of the hyperinflation period before the infamous Zimbabwe dollar was...
Finding value in frontier African markets
Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...
Global slowdown continues to take its toll
The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...
Riding out volatility in African equity markets
Africa’s equity markets delivered disappointing returns in 2018. The MSCI Africa index was down -24%, while the MSCI Africa ex-SA index was down -13%. None o...
South Africa's fiscal dilemma
Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...
Global economy losing momentum
After two years of strong synchronous growth the global economy is losing momentum. Almost without exception the most recent purchasing manager’s indices are...
A volatile quarter for emerging market equity and currency markets
Emerging market equity and currency markets had a very volatile quarter. Vulnerabilities, both economic and political, are being exposed as global financial...
Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure
Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest
South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...
Zimbabwe in transition
Zimbabwe’s election on 30 July 2018 heralds a new beginning after the abrupt end to President Robert Mugabe’s 37-year reign in November 2017. We are not...
Approaching a tipping point?
After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...
Demystifying Africa’s debt markets
Investors seeking diversification outside of South Africa can easily overlook the investment opportunities in other African markets. It is tempting to start ...
Tough times for African equities
Most African equity markets had a difficult 2016, generating negative dollar returns. The worst performers were Egypt and Nigeria, which fell 47% and 41%...
What is the sweet spot for the oil price?
In the face of an OPEC oil production cut, shale producer activity and US President Donald Trump proposing various far-reaching changes what can we expect fr...
Investing in Africa’s debt markets
Patient capital dedicated to Africa’s capital markets is scarce, especially during economic or political downturns. Nick Ndiritu explains how long-term...
Gold: A history of its price
Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...
Consumption trends in emerging markets: Opportunities and pitfalls
Looking to capitalise on the rise of the emerging market consumer? Beware of the potential pitfalls .
The collapse of the oil price and its consequences
The dramatic collapse of oil prices at the end of last year caught most market participants by surprise. For three and a half years, between February 2011 an...
Understanding the risk of loss in Africa ex-SA
A small percentage of the foreign component of our Balanced and Stable Funds is invested in Africa and investors looking for greater exposure to the region c...
The nature of contrarian investing
The average investor cannot avoid being bullish at market tops and bearish at bottoms. This produces periods of speculation and panic within the normal up an...
China's Malthusian challenge
Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...
Africa's investable universe
We expect a change in prudential investment regulations to allow pension fund investors to invest up to 5% of their assets in Africa, in addition to other...
Deflation
It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...
The triumph of the markets
It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...
