Articles tagged as "economy"
Seeking a bridge for South Africa’s troubled waters
As South Africans breathe a sigh of relief that load shedding has tailed off, water risks have come to the fore. Multiple provinces are grappling with...
Rate-cutting cycle kicks off
During the last quarter, US equity indices reached new all-time highs as the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) commenced its rate-cutting cycle with a cut of 50...
Balancing risk and reward in South African equities
We often write about large individual equity positions in our portfolios, but this quarter, Duncan Artus focuses on the opportunities and risks in “SA Inc” –...
How we balance the upside-downside risk in South African equities
We often write about large individual equity positions in our portfolios, but this quarter, Duncan Artus focuses on the opportunities and risks in “SA Inc” –...
Eskom: Are brighter days ahead?
What does 2024 have in store for loadshedding? Raine Adams investigates whether there is any light at the end of the dark tunnel.
The prospects for global growth
The post-pandemic bounce back of the global economy is losing momentum, and many fear that developed economies may slip into recession.
Shedding dark on the issue of South Africa’s economic growth
South African companies are reallocating billions of rands towards the extraordinary costs associated with loadshedding. Government’s prospects for debt...
Regime change and the rise of the stockpicker
Alec Cutler chats to Bloomberg’s Merryn Somerset Webb about the impact of central bank and government intervention, the future of inflation and why being a...
2023 Budget speech update
Finance Minister Ipumbu Shiimi, MP delivered his Budget speech on Wednesday, 22 February 2023. In acknowledging the continued hardships endured by most...
Was 2022 a secular turning point and if so, what does it mean for the years ahead?
In his first investment update of 2023, Duncan Artus discusses the current investment context and how it differs from the past, shares a review of 2022 and...
Economic update: A post-pandemic new normal
2022 saw a massive appreciation of the US dollar against all other currencies and the highest inflation since the early 1980s. These trends, which so dominat...
The price of money, the shortage of energy, and the monster of inflation
Thalia Petousis discusses its impact on financial markets, global trade financing and the energy sector, as well as how central banks are now waging a war...
Whither inflation?
In the past 12 months , global inflation has surged. Sandy McGregor discusses the increasingly turbulent response of the financial markets.
On the commodity boom and other South African fables (and foibles)
Just as the economic destruction from the COVID-19 pandemic rose to crisis levels, strong commodity export prices swept in to alleviate South Africa’s fiscal...
Podcast: Can optimism rise from the inflationary ashes?
In conversation with portfolio manager, Thalia Petousis, Sandy McGregor reflects on the very real geopolitical and economic challenges currently affecting th...
Local investment update: Always pay the right price
Jacques Plaut and Duncan Artus discuss the positioning of our equity and multi-asset funds given the pre-existing trends exacerbated by the war in Ukraine....
2022 Budget speech update
Finance Minister Ipumbu Shiimi, MP delivered his Budget speech on Thursday, 24 February 2022. He noted that there is an urgent need to reignite economic...
Preparing for more uncertainty and volatility
A look back over the last two years reveals how difficult forecasting is. Even with perfect foresight of the pandemic context, one would not have been able t...
The transition into the post-pandemic world
It is remarkable the extent to which the future is hidden from us. We all conduct our lives largely in terms of our experiences in the recent past, assuming...
It’s the price you pay that matters
As investors we shouldn’t pretend we operate in a vacuum that is nicely insulated from the prevailing macroeconomic and political trends. However, it is...
Economic recovery accompanied by a surge in inflation
With increasing vaccinations economic activity is returning to pre-pandemic levels and, while there may be further waves of infection, governments are learni...
Inflation returns
Prices are on the up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The question is, will deflationary conditions resume as global economic conditions normalise or is...
Global recovery underway
The world is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 should see strong global economic growth. The epicentre of the recovery is now the United States, where th...
2021 Budget speech update
Finance Minister Tito Mboweni delivered the Budget speech on Wednesday, 24 February. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Budget was more...
The state of the economy
In a recent Q&A-style webinar hosted by Allan Gray’s Vuyo Nogantshi, Allan Gray’s Sandy McGregor and the Reserve Bank’s Rashad Cassim and David Fowkes examin...
Investment update: Taking advantage of disparities in the market
One of the key preconditions for successful active management is the level of disparity in the markets. Duncan Artus discusses this in our first video and...
The impact of COVID-19's second wave
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the global recovery following the severe economic contraction experienced during the second quarter ...
Orbis: The power of perspective
It is easy to get caught up in the noise of short-term events like politics. What we have learned over the past 30 years is that a long-term view often revea...
Are you sitting on savings you could be investing?
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected people's finances in very different ways. While it has highlighted the need for emergency savings as a buffer against toug...
The dangers of printing money
Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT as it is often called, is a new term for an old idea. Its proponents argue that a state which issues fiat money does not have ...
How is the market up?
After the worst five-week crash ever, global stock markets have recovered all of their losses in just five months, with the MSCI World Index setting a new...
Orbis: Our job is to be uncomfortable
Our job at Allan Gray and Orbis is to be uncomfortable and to sweat our clients’ capital. Ultimately what we focus on is the risk of capital loss - and that...
Equity Fund update: In pursuit of potential
The most important determinant of investment success is the price you pay for an asset, and valuations for many quality companies are the cheapest they have...
COVID-19: Portfolio, economic and investment update
During February and March, we were active in both the local equity and fixed income markets. This activity reduced during April and May, as we believed the...
Q&A with Allan Gray and Orbis: Investing beyond COVID-19
While financial market volatility as a result of COVID-19 is expected to continue over the short term, the investment teams at Allan Gray and Orbis are focus...
Investing during lockdown and beyond
Sometimes in investing, the best thing to do is nothing. In a presentation to advisers and clients via Zoom webinar, Duncan Artus examined the levels and...
Perspectives and portfolio positioning amid COVID-19
The world as we know it has changed dramatically over the last two months, with the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown strategies causing extreme volatility on t...
The world after the COVID-19 pandemic
We are witnessing a global economic collapse without precedent in modern times. As investors we must think about what the world will look like when the...
Positioning our portfolios for growth beyond COVID-19
The speed at which the financial market swings from despair to elation is astounding. The past few months have seen no shortage of mood swings as investors...
COVID-19: Looking to history to understand potential outcomes
With much of the world in lockdown, one wonders whether it is appropriate to draw on past analogies in thinking about what lies ahead. However, every prior...
COVID-19: Q&A with Allan Gray portfolio managers
With many countries in lockdown, uncertainty prevails. Against this backdrop, many clients are asking for our views on the economic impact, an update on our...
Impact of Moody's downgrade
As a consequence of the decision by Moody’s to lower South Africa’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3, all three leading rating agencies now rate South African...
COVID-19: We remain open for you during the lockdown
As we enter into lockdown, Tamryn Lamb, head of retail distribution, reassures investors that we are open during this most unsettling time. She also provides...
COVID-19: Evaluating market risk versus opportunity
We have managed our portfolios through a range of different crises since 1974. Over the last 20 years, the dotcom collapse in 2001/02, the global financial...
Coronavirus: Taking stock of the state of the markets
The world is changing extremely fast. The global business shutdown is unlike anything seen outside wartime. It is impossible to know the length or depth of t...
How could a ratings downgrade affect investors?
Inundated with reports of failing state-owned enterprises and spiralling government debt, investors are understandably concerned ahead of South Africa’s 2020...
Should you invest in bonds?
The recent performance of South African bonds – which have outperformed cash and equities over three and five years – has prompted investors to ask whether...
Inflation
Inflation is a phenomenon of great importance to investors. It is subject to intense scrutiny but is not well understood. Sandy McGregor offers his perspecti...
An age of anxiety
We are living in an age of anxiety. After decades in which the norm has been optimism, everywhere market participants are extremely nervous about evolving an...
South African investors need to fall out of love with equities
South Africa’s equity market capitalisation equates to more than 200% of the country’s GDP, the highest proportion in the world and a level that is simply no...
Trade wars
In recent months, we have observed increasing uncertainty and concern among our clients about what impact rising international tensions, particularly the tra...
Global business conditions deteriorate
Negative news about the global economy persists. Purchasing manager indices continue to signal a widespread deterioration in business conditions. Even in the...
Valuations matter
Uncertainty abounds at present. Equity returns for the past few years have been underwhelming, political upheaval locally and internationally is causing wave...
Finding value in frontier African markets
Across corporate boardrooms in South Africa, a number of management teams and institutional investors are grappling with a vexing question: Is investing in...
Global slowdown continues to take its toll
The synchronous global slowdown, which commenced in the last quarter of 2018, continues to take its toll. While Europe is not in recession, it has returned t...
How you can influence your investment outcomes
After an undeniably tough 2018, the local market staged a turnaround during the first quarter. But the atmosphere in the country is blowing hot and cold: As...
South Africa's fiscal dilemma
Faced with sky-high debt, a stagnant economy and disappointing tax collections, South Africa is on an unsustainable fiscal path. Difficult choices have to be...
Global growth accelerates but emerging markets under pressure
Following a slower first quarter, the rate of global economic growth accelerated during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with Europe being the only notable...
How to thrive in choppy markets
This year has been characterised by increased volatility and concern about the global risks – from trade disputes to inflation. After a strong start to the...
Increasing policy uncertainty
With few exceptions, notably India, most countries experienced slower economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. Anecdotal evidence suggests that that the...
SA needs to unlock its 'demographic dividend' by getting the private sector to invest
South Africa needs to stop looking to government spending as the catalyst for economic growth and should instead foster a more conducive environment for...
Approaching a tipping point?
After a strong start to the year, global investors have been spooked by a diverse combination of developments, including a slowdown in global economic...
The value of bitcoin
The total market value of all bitcoins is US$80bn, which is more than the value of Richemont and triple the value of Anglo American. It is the topic on which...
Global jitters: Avoid safe havens, opportunity in overlooked sectors
The uncertain global political and economic backdrop created by unexpected recent shocks has spooked investors. However fear, particularly when spurred by...
Equity Fund update: Volatility presents opportunity
The economic outlook deteriorated during the second quarter, exacerbated by the British referendum. Although the market’s perception of near-term headwinds m...
Gold: A history of its price
Inventories play a significant role in the pricing of commodities: when they are low prices tend to rise, while excessive inventories depress prices. However...
Annual report from the outgoing Chief Investment Officer
Adapted from the Chief Investment Officer’s comments, which will appear in the Allan Gray Unit Trust Annual Report, 2015. These are Ian Liddle’s final Annual...
China's Malthusian challenge
Two years since the global financial crisis and commodity prices are back at the record levels of June 2008. This growth has been about five years quicker th...
Deflation
It seems the world may divide into two distinct camps: the mature economies gripped by deflation and stagnation, and the emerging markets, which continue to...
The triumph of the markets
It is the nature of markets to reward success and eliminate what is unsustainable. During the past year we have seen a dramatic manifestation of this process...
